Mauricio "Shogun" Rua opens as betting favorite in rematch with Forrest Griffin at UFC 134 in Brazil

By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief

When Forrest Griffin and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua met at UFC 76 in 2007, Griffin entered the fight a massive underdog to the man considered by many to be the #1 light heavyweight fighter in the world at that time. Now, as the two are set to rematch at UFC 134 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil this August, Griffin has opened up as the underdog yet again.

According to BloodyElbow.com, the opening betting lines for the fight have "Shogun" the favorite at -195, while Griffin opens at +160. For those unfamiliar with the way betting lines work, in order to win $100 on Shogun at these lines, you would need to place a bet of $195. Also, a $100 bet on Griffin would win $160 with a Griffin win.

Griffin submitted "Shogun" in the third round of their first meeting, but due to Rua entering the fight on a long layoff due to knee surgery, the fight has always been questioned. The prevailing belief has been that Rua simply wasn't back up to speed and that fight, and things would be different if the two met again. With him one fight removed from being the division's champion, and Griffin having suffered two high profile losses since their first meeting, these betting odds reflect that.

The odds will shift as bets are placed on either side over the next several months prior to their fight in Brazil, but it's interesting to see what oddsmakers start the lines at with big fights like this.

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Penick's Analysis: I'd expect a lot of money to come in on Griffin at these odds. By the time the fight comes around I think the lines will get closer to even, because even though Rua is only a fight removed from being the champion, Griffin is still the same type of stylistic nightmare that messed with him the first time. Sure the knee issue probably played some factor in the first fight, but Griffin is a big, strong light heavyweight with the grappling acumen to bother Shogun throughout a three round fight. If he can avoid exchanging blows with Rua and leaving himself open for strikes then he'll be in good shape, and I think he's got a very good chance to beat Rua again. I won't be the only one, and a lot of people will look to make money off of him at these odds if they believe that as well. Either way, this is a great matchup, but I think Shogun's value as the "favorite" is going to shrink over the next few months.

Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/UFC_2/article_9154.shtml

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